Hole in the Sun’s Atmosphere Oct 26 2023
SPACEWEATHER.COM NEWS: OCTOBER 25, 2023
A HOLE IN THE SUN’S ATMOSPHERE: A double-lobed hole has opened in the sun’s atmosphere, and it is spewing a complex stream of solar wind toward Earth. ETA: Oct. 30th. Its arrival could spark a display of high-latitude Halloween auroras.
Orange Auroral Pillars, Taken by Harlan Thomas on October 19, 2023 @ Sibbald Pond West of Calgary – SPACEWEATHER IMAGE GALLARY
THE MYSTERY OF ORANGE AURORAS: A recent display of auroras over Canada has experts scratching their heads. The mystery? They were orange. “This was a first for me,” says Harlan Thomas, who photographed the display over Sibbald Pond west of Calgary, Alberta, on Oct. 19th. “The orange was sublime, just incredible. The pillars in the center stayed there glowing for more than 20 minutes.”
The problem is, there’s nothing in the air capable of making bright orange. Theoretically, nitrogen and oxygen (N2, N2+, and O2+) can produce emissions at orange wavelengths. However, these emissions are very weak compared to other colors produced by the same molecules. Any orange should be overwhelmed. The answer may be hiding in plain sight. Take another look at Thomas’s photo. Bright red auroras appear on top, overlapping green auroras lower down. Red and green mixing together may have produced the yellow-orange glow.
Indeed, aurora physicist Kjellmar Oksavik of the University of Bergen in Norway believes that’s the correct explanation: “Red auroras are formed by low-energy electrons colliding with atomic oxygen at high altitudes (200-400 km). Here, oxygen atoms are excited into a quantum state called O(1D), where they can emit a red photon at 630.0 nanometers,” Oksavik says. “Green auroras are formed by higher-energy electrons penetrating deeper and colliding with atomic oxygen at lower altitudes (100-150 km),” he continues. “Here, oxygen atoms are excited into a state called O(1S), where they emit a green photon at 557.7 nanometers.”
SPACEWEATHER.COM NEWS: OCTOBER 26, 2023
UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Earlier today, Oct. 26th, a crack opened in Earth’s magnetic field, triggering an unexpected G1-class geomagnetic storm. The episode lasted for approximately 5 hours (0800 UT — 1300 UT) and probably ignited auroras around the Arctic Circle, although none has been reported yet.
NOAA FORECASTS QUICKER, STRONGER SOLAR MAX: When Solar Cycle 25 began in 2020, leading forecasters thought it would be weak and slow to develop. Fast forward three years: NOAA is now predicting a quicker, stronger solar cycle. The revised forecast, published yesterday, shows Solar Max coming sometime between January and October 2024:
NOAA’s original prediction for Solar Cycle 25 is shown in pink (
), the broad band indicating the uncertainty of the forecast. It has become clear in recent years that the original prediction was too low, which prompted NOAA to issue a new one. The magenta line (
) traces the new forecast, and takes into account recent high sunspot counts.
Uncertainties in the new forecast are bounded by different shades of magenta. There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the dark-shaded region; a 50% chance it will fall in the medium-shaded region; and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.
If this new forecast is correct, Solar Cycle 25 could land in the ballpark of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in 2000-2001, and produced the famous Halloween Storms of 2003. See The Day Earth Lost Half Its Satellites (Halloween Storms 2003)
However, the odds still favor Solar Cycle 25 being a bit weaker than Solar Cycle 23. Either way, next year’s Solar Max could be potent.
NOAA plans to update this new forecast every month. Check out their Space Weather Prediction Testbed for the latest prediction.
The Solar Winds deliver the Breath of the Sun, as we move in to the trecena of Wind/IK, beginning 1 Wind/IK, October 27, 2023. The trecena of Wind/IK is a Time of Truth ordered by the Breath of Life and the Breath of Spirit.
THE TRECENA OF OFFERING/MULUC: HEALING OUR EMOTIONS
MAYAN CALENDAR DAYKEEPER’S JOURNAL
13 Crocodile/IMIX (ee meesh), Cherokee, Turtle/DAK’SI I’SB, Destiny Kin 221, Position 1
October 26, 2023, 10/26/2023
